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Conservation Letters

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Conservation Letters's content profile, based on 11 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Sharks, Rays, & MPAs: Evaluating protected area coverage in national waters across species ranges

Arnold, A. E.; Matsushiba, J. H.; Dulvy, N. K.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712493 medRxiv
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Global conservation agreements emphasize protected area coverage targets, such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Frameworks 30x30 target, yet their effectiveness in safeguarding biodiversity remains uncertain. We measure the intersection between marine protected area (MPAs) coverage and the distribution of sharks and rays. Using global range maps and MPA boundaries within national Exclusive Economic Zones, we calculate the percent of species ranges within MPAs, focusing on no-take areas. We reveal significant shortfalls in species-level protection. Within national waters, no Critically Endangered species has more than 5% of its range in no-take MPAs, and 79% of threatened species have less than 1%. We also find the WDPA contains major gaps in take-status reporting, only one third of countries (34%) report take-status of any MPAs to the WDPA, further limiting estimates of meaningful protection. These results highlight the implementation gap between global coverage targets and biodiversity outcomes, reinforcing the need for species-focused protection.

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Quantifying catch inequality in recreational fisheries: a case study with California steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Sanchez, S. R.; Schneider, C.; Fangue, N. A.; Lusardi, R. A.; Rypel, A. L.

2026-03-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.17.712454 medRxiv
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Catch inequality--the disproportionate distribution of catch across anglers-- is a fundamental but overlooked driver of recreational fisheries dynamics. Here, we use 11 years (2012-2022) of compulsory angler report cards to characterize long-term catch dynamics in the specialized recreational steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fishery in California, U.S.A. Spatialized catch data reveal the fishery is principally supported by wild fish, despite evidence of widespread hatchery straying. California steelhead appear to represent the most catch-unequal recreational fishery studied yet, exhibiting a statewide Gini coefficient of 0.81. Across basins, inequality varies substantially but remains relatively stable over time and flow conditions; high inequality is primarily driven by significant proportions of zero-catch anglers. We find the relationship between sample size and inequality measures is especially influential in fisheries data. Hence, we develop a three-prong approach for identifying minimal sample sizes required for robust Gini estimation. Across basins and years, an average minimum of 77 report cards were required for the present fishery. Collectively, these findings demonstrate the necessity of considering catch inequality in fisheries management, particularly when utilizing angler data. Graphical AbstractN.a.

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Tradeoffs in planning marine protected areas for kelp forest resilience: protecting climate refugia is not always the best solution

Hopf, J. K.; Giraldo-Ospina, A.; Caselle, J.; Kroeker, K.; Carr, M.; Hastings, A.; White, J. W.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.01.715997 medRxiv
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Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly promoted as climate mitigation tools, yet guidance on their placement to maximize resilience against climate stressors like marine heatwaves remains limited. Here, we develop MPA placement guidelines that explicitly consider a mechanistic pathway through which MPAs could enhance kelp forest resilience to heatwaves: protecting fishery-targeted urchin predators to prevent kelp overgrazing. Using a spatially explicit, tri-trophic model of California kelp forests, we evaluate alternative MPA configurations across a hypothetical coastline where half the habitat experiences an increased probability of experiencing heatwaves. We found that effective MPA placement depends on whether MPAs are being newly established or reconfigured within an existing network, and that among-patch connectivity and spillover played vital roles in the relative effectiveness of different MPA configurations. Changes in resilience occurred primarily at the patch scale, with trade-offs between increased within-MPA resilience and decreased resilience in some fished areas, resulting in minimal coastwide population effects. For example, for new MPAs, large single MPAs within heatwave-prone areas maximized within-MPA resilience gains, while multiple small MPAs in heatwave refugia best supported whole-coast resilience. When reconfiguring established networks, expanding existing MPAs in refugia areas was most effective. We also demonstrate the importance of considering MPA recovery timescales: for example, relocating old MPAs to heatwave refugia yielded minimal short-term benefits due to the loss of rebuilt, previously fished, predator biomass. Our findings demonstrate that climate-adaptive marine planning should explicitly consider the spatiotemporal implications of trophic cascades, connectivity, and transient population dynamics to support ecosystem resilience.

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Into new depths: climate-driven habitat expansion of the endangered skate Dipturus chilensis (Chondrichthyes, Rajiformes)

Villafana, J.; Almendras, D.; Gonzalez-Aragon, D.; Concha, F.; Guzman-Castellanos, A.; Contreras, I.; Buldrini, K.; Oyanadel-Urbina, P.; Sandoval, C.; Miranda, B.; Mazo, G.; Cardenas, F.; Valdivia, M.; Pequeno, G.; Lara, C.; Rivadeneira, M.

2026-03-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.26.714520 medRxiv
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The yellownose skate (Dipturus chilensis) is an endangered skate with a narrow distribution in the southeastern Pacific, facing intense fishing pressure and potential climate threats. Using a species distribution model, we projected the current and future distribution of D. chilensis under contrasting climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for mid-century (2050) and end-of-century (2100). Our models, which demonstrated robust predictive performance significantly better than random expectations, identified maximum temperature and minimum oxygen as the primary environmental drivers of habitat suitability. Projections revealed a consistent poleward range shift towards the Channels and Fjords of Southern Chile ecoregion across all scenarios. While localized habitat loss was projected in Central Chile and Araucanian ecoregions, particularly under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), these losses were outweighed by southern expansions, leading to a net increase in total suitable habitat by 2100. These findings underscore the critical need for climate-adaptive management strategies, including the protection of emerging southern refugia and dynamic fisheries regulations, to ensure the long-term persistence of D. chilensis.

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The effect of outdoor recreation on mammal habitat use and diversity revealed by COVID-19 closures

Dimitriou, A.; Benson-Amram, S.; Gaynor, K.; Burton, C.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.02.715670 medRxiv
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The rising demand for outdoor recreation worldwide may be undermining the conservation objectives of protected areas (PAs). We leveraged a natural experiment, in which two adjacent PAs were closed to the public for different durations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using detections from 39 camera traps in Joffre Lakes and Garibaldi Parks, Canada, from 2020-2022, we examined how recreation influenced mammal habitat use and diversity. Bayesian regression showed weak evidence that, when recreation was higher, detections declined for black bear, mule deer, and marten, while detections of bobcat and hoary marmot shifted closer to trails. Accumulation curves revealed that species richness and diversity were higher in the closed vs. open PA in 2020 (mean differences of -5.04 for richness and -0.33 for Shannon diversity). However, diversity did not decline consistently despite increases in recreation in 2021 and 2022. Notably, several rare species were only detected in the lower-recreation PA, suggesting they may be filtered out of the higher-recreation PA. This emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring to detect delayed and cumulative effects of recreation on mammal communities. Given growing global pressures on biodiversity, we urge PA managers to prioritize adaptive management to assess and balance outdoor recreation with conservation goals.

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The City Nature Challenge increases urban biodiversity knowledge and public engagement with blue spaces

Morgan, M. C.; Hopkins, C. R.; Forster, R.; Gomez, A.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.19.712856 medRxiv
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Global biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate due to rapid environmental change and increasing human pressures. Ongoing urban expansion fragments natural systems, while urban design increasingly seeks to mitigate these impacts through the integration of blue-green infrastructure. Effective biodiversity monitoring is therefore essential to evaluate ecological conditions within these novel socio-ecological systems. Although urban biodiversity monitoring is challenged by its high landscape heterogeneity, dense human populations provide opportunities for large-scale data collection through public participation in citizen science. Using data from 25 City Nature Challenge (CNC) projects across the United Kingdom (2020-2025), we assessed the effects of the four-day bioblitz on species inventories, participation in biological recording, and spatial patterns of recording effort. CNC events doubled public participation in iNaturalist recording relative to baseline activity, leading to the documentation of numerous previously unrecorded species through increased observer effort and broader use of urban blue-green spaces. These results show that CNC events enhance urban biodiversity datasets by increasing the number of observers and reducing spatial and observer biases, providing a cost-effective tool for enriching urban biodiversity data. In addition to generating ecological data, CNC events could have public health benefits through increased exposure to urban blue-green spaces.

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Coral restoration alters reef soundscapes but machine learning and manual analyses suggest different recovery rates

Croasdale, E. M.; Saponari, L.; Dale, C.; Shah, N.; Williams, B.; Lamont, T. A. C.

2026-04-02 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.31.710564 medRxiv
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Coral restoration is recognised as a critical tool to mitigate pantropical degradation of reef ecosystems. Robust monitoring of restoration progress is crucial for projects to evaluate their success, improve practice, and share knowledge. However, traditional visual surveys often fail to capture the full impact of coral restoration on reef function. Therefore, we employed Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) to assess whether the soundscape of a coral restoration site in the Seychelles differs from adjacent healthy and degraded reference reefs. We applied two methods of soundscape analysis: manual detection of unidentified fish sounds; and machine learning-based Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection analysis. Results were approach-specific: the manual approach highlighted similarities in fish calls between the restoration site and the healthy reference reef, while the machine learning approach extracted broader soundscape patterns, clustering the restoration site alongside the degraded reference reef. Although this is a single-site study, these findings suggest that a) coral restoration alters reef soundscapes, though recovery time may be taxon-specific, and b) multiple metrics are needed to bridge single-taxon and broad soundscape scales. This study contributes to the evolving field of soundscape ecology in coral reef ecosystems, highlighting the utility of PAM in monitoring changes to reef function through coral restoration.

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Exploring the relationship between dolphins and fisheries: uncovering the spatial and temporal patterns that influence potential conflicts along Portugal's north coast

Barbieri, B.; Afonso, L.; Oliveira-Rodrigues, C.; Silva, I.; Gil, A.; Marcalo, A.; Sousa-Pinto, I.; Correia, A. M.; Valente, R.

2026-03-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.25.714190 medRxiv
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The north coast of mainland Portugal supports a strong dolphin presence and extensive fishing activity, increasing the likelihood of interactions, such as bycatch. This study provides an initial assessment of potential conflict areas, using automatic identification system (AIS) data from Global Fishing Watch. To this end, sighting data from the ATLANTIDA project (2021-2024) on the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) were used to describe spatiotemporal patterns of occurrence and encounter rates, and to predict their association with fishing effort to identify and map areas of potential overlap. A generalised additive model (GAM) was then applied, integrating environmental, spatial, temporal, and fisheries-related variables to identify the main predictors of species occurrence. Common dolphins were frequently observed during the summer, with an average encounter rate of 3.662 sightings/km. This high encounter rate may be associated with factors such as sea surface temperature, diet, and purse seine fishing activity. The maps showed a spatial overlap between fishing grounds and areas of common dolphin occurrence. Fishing effort was nearly identical between locations with sightings (2.00 h/km{superscript 2}) and those without (1.62 h/km{superscript 2}), suggesting that dolphins are not actively avoiding fishing areas but may instead frequent them due to shared habitat preferences. The best-fitted GAM indicated that encounters were related to year, latitude, fishing effort, depth, sea surface temperature, and season. There was an increase in occurrence over the years and a decrease with increasing fishing effort and sea surface temperature, possibly linked to changes in prey availability, although broad confidence intervals warrant cautious interpretation. Despite some limitations encountered in this study, we believe our findings provide valuable insights into the relationship between dolphin occurrence, environmental conditions, and fishing activities in the area, establishing an important baseline for future conservation and fisheries management efforts.

9
Quantifying Exposure of Pacific Salmon and Steelhead to Climate Change in the Fraser River basin

Peacock, S. J.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Connors, B. M.; Crozier, L. G.; Grant, S.; Hertz, E.; Hunt, B. P. V.; Iacarella, J.; Lagasse, C. R.; Moore, R. D.; Moore, J. W.; Nicolas-Robinne, F.; Porter, M.; Schnorbus, M.; Wilson, S. M.; Connors, K.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712684 medRxiv
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Climate change can affect salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) throughout their anadromous life cycles, yet there have been no assessments of which Canadian populations face the greatest exposure. We developed a framework to quantify relative climate change exposure of salmon and steelhead populations based on the spatial and temporal distribution of different life stages. Exposure was calculated from climate model projections for freshwater and marine climate variables considering unique impact thresholds for each population and life stage. We applied this framework to 60 Conservation Units of Pacific salmon and steelhead in the Fraser River basin, British Columbia. Lake-type sockeye had the highest exposure, driven by elevated stream temperatures during adult freshwater migration and spawning stages and relatively low thermal tolerance of marine stages. Chinook salmon were the next most exposed, while coho, pink, and chum salmon had relatively low exposure. Uniquely, steelhead exposure was driven by high stream temperatures during incubation. Our framework is broadly applicable, and our findings provide critical input for climate change vulnerability assessments and forward-looking resilience planning for Pacific salmon.

10
Sharing the trail: recreation effects on bear behaviour in a Canadian Rocky Mountain Park

Dimitriou, A.; Gaynor, K. M.; Benson-Amram, S.; Percy, M.; Burton, C.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.02.714576 medRxiv
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Humans are profoundly reshaping the natural world. These changes are giving rise to complex and mutually risky dynamics between people and large carnivores. In protected areas across North America, bears (Ursus sp.) face rapidly rising recreation pressures that can alter their use of the landscape, either displacing them from high-quality habitats or drawing them into human-wildlife conflicts through habituation or attraction to anthropogenic resources. However, disentangling responses to recreation from other drivers can be difficult because human activity covaries with environmental and seasonal processes that also shape bear activity. We leveraged the partial closure of the popular Berg Lake Trail in Mount Robson Park, British Columbia, Canada, to investigate whether black (Ursus americanus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) showed fear, attraction or neutral behavioural responses to varying recreation levels across multiple spatiotemporal scales. To understand both anticipatory responses to predictable patterns of human activity, and reactive responses to hiker events, we used detections from 43 camera traps over two years (July 2023-June 2025). We compared weekly habitat use, daily activity patterns, and direct responses to hikers (using Avoidance-Attraction Ratios; AARs) among camera sites and between open and closed sections of the trail. Our results revealed that both bear species exhibited patterns consistent with fear responses, while some black bear behaviours were also consistent with attraction responses. Both kinds of responses reflect anticipatory strategies rather than reactionary behaviours (i.e., no AAR effect). Neither species avoided recreation spatially at the weekly scale: black bears were detected more at site-weeks with greater recreation intensity, while grizzly bears were consistently detected more at sites closer to hiking trails. However, both species used daily temporal partitioning to avoid direct encounters with humans. These findings demonstrate scope for human-bear coexistence when recreation levels are managed to be moderate and predictable, and bears have sufficient space to segregate from humans during peak times. Thus, successful coexistence will hinge on co-adaptation by both bears and people. Understanding how recreation influences bear behaviour, and the spatiotemporal scale at which that occurs, is critical for guiding effective adaptive management aimed at fostering human-bear coexistence in high-traffic protected areas.

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How farming practices and livestock management affect Human-Wildlife Conflict intensity in Southern Ecuador: The case of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) and feral dogs

Lopes, F.; Penaherrera-Aguirre, M.; Cisneros, R.

2026-03-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.29.715147 medRxiv
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BackgroundHuman-Wildlife Conflict is emerging as one of the most critical conservation and socio-economic challenges in the Ecuadorian Andes, where both rural livelihoods and native fauna are under increasing pressure. Small-scale livestock producers in the region depend almost entirely on a limited number of cattle, meaning that the loss of even a single animal can lead to severe economic hardship. In response, antagonistic actions against wildlife are frequent, further threatening vulnerable species. At the same time, the recent proliferation of feral dogs adds a new dimension to conflict, posing risks to both livestock and native fauna. Despite the growing severity of this conflict, little is known of its drivers, spatial patterns, and socio-ecological consequences. This study seeks to fill that gap by generating insights to inform targeted conservation strategies for community-based mitigation of conflict with spectacled bears and feral dogs. MethodsTo assess the drivers and dynamics of HWC in southern Ecuador, we conducted structured interviews with livestock owners, quantifying the frequency and intensity of conflicts across multiple species and evaluating whether farm composition and management practices predict conflict patterns. ResultsOur results reveal that large carnivores cause significantly higher economic losses than smaller predators; furthermore, feral dogs have emerged as the primary source of financial damage over the past five years. Farms with a greater proportion of forest edge were associated with a higher probability of severe conflict, particularly with large carnivores. ConclusionsThese findings underscore the urgent need for proactive strategies to promote coexistence. Identifying predictive variables of conflict risk is crucial for vulnerability assessments and the design of effective mitigation policies. Controlling feral dog populations is likely to be a critical step in safeguarding both rural human livelihoods and native biodiversity in the Andean landscape.

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The role and origins of human attitudes in Human-Wildlife Conflict responses: Insights from Spectacled Bears (Tremarctos ornatus) and other wild carnivores in Southern Ecuador

Lopes, F.; Penaherrera-Aguirre, M.; Cisneros, R.

2026-03-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.29.715142 medRxiv
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BackgroundHuman-wildlife conflict, which motivates retaliatory killings, is a major driver of species decline globally. Addressing an open question in human-wildlife conflict, we test whether evolutionary-rooted human attitudes, independent of economic losses, better predict retaliatory responses. MethodsWe examined human attitudes toward spectacled bears (Tremarctos ornatus) and other wild carnivores in a wildlife conflict-zone in southern Ecuador by conducting interviews in rural communities. We measured both established variables - such as education levels, age, and gender - and novel psychometric variables to identify predictors of human-wildlife conflict responses. ResultsPerceptions of animals emerged as the strongest predictor of conflict responses. Communities exhibiting high levels of vengefulness, particularly within an animal-directed Culture of Honor, where individuals, especially men, are expected to respond strongly or violently to perceived threats, were more likely to support lethal interventions. Conversely, individuals with strong environmental education backgrounds demonstrated more positive perceptions of wildlife, highlighting educations potential role in conflict mitigation. ConclusionEvolutionary-derived attitudes, rather than economic factors, primarily drive human responses to wildlife conflict. Effective strategies to reduce violence against wildlife should incorporate human perceptions and culturally rooted values to address the underlying social and psychological drivers of conflict.

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Ungulate conservation: Lessons from experimental white-lipped peccary management in agricultural-natural landscape mosaics of the Brazilian Cerrado

Painkow Neto, E.; Silvius, K. M.; Barquero, G.; Neves, D. C.; Fragoso, J. M. V.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.716323 medRxiv
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Animal population control is widely used to mitigate conflicts between wildlife and agriculture worldwide. Structured, monitored removals are rare in South America, however, and their consequences for wildlife populations as well as their effectiveness in reducing crop damage are little understood. Using eight years of data from an experimental white-lipped peccary management program in an agricultural mosaic in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, we assess how structured, non-lethal removals affect both peccary demography and second-crop corn damage. Leslie removal models based on 6,619 captured individuals indicated that cumulative removals to approximately 85% of the initial population strongly reduced peccary abundance, with limited demographic compensation despite fluctuations in reproductive output. Corn crop damage, quantified with satellite imagery, declined over time and was correlated with peccary population size. Interannual variation in population growth and juvenile recruitment was poorly explained by climate, fire, or landscape composition. Source-sink dynamics likely play a role in maintaining healthy populations at the regional scale. Together, these results demonstrate that sustained and monitored ungulate removals can reliably reduce population size and agricultural damage, supporting coexistence between wildlife and food crop production in human-dominated tropical landscapes.

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An agent-based approach for designing effective protection

Slooten, E.; Myers, L. S.; Nabe-Nielsen, J.

2026-04-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.716393 medRxiv
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We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to assess how area-based controls on fishing methods can reduce fishing mortality and population declines. The model incorporates the behavior and distributions of dolphins and fishing vessels, and realistic displacement of fishing effort when protection is extended. Our case study is New Zealand dolphin - Hectors and Maui dolphins. The model was designed and calibrated using pattern-oriented modeling. Our results show that mortality due to entanglement in fishing gears has been reduced thanks to a gradual increase in dolphin protection. However, current protection is not as effective as previously thought, and scarce populations are negatively affected by Allee effects. Neither national nor international goals for reducing bycatch are met by current dolphin protection. The IUCN has recommended banning gillnet and trawl fisheries in New Zealand waters < 100m deep. For most New Zealand dolphin populations, this would be effective in achieving national and international goals for reducing bycatch. Only two populations would require additional protection. This modelling approach is also suitable for assessing impacts of bycatch and ship strikes for other marine species, making it suitable for informing management decisions in many regions.

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Time to Potential Collision: A Dynamic Approach To Study Vessel-Whale Close Encounters

Santos, R.; Oliveira-Rodrigues, C.; Silva, I. M.; Valente, R.; Afonso, L.; Gil, A.; Vinagre, C.; Sambolino, A.; Fernandez, M.; Alves, F.; Sousa-Pinto, I.; Correia, A. M.

2026-03-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.23.713354 medRxiv
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Vessel-whale collisions are a growing global concern and remain challenging to quantify. Therefore, the use of proxies, such as Close Encounters (CEs) that comprise Surprise Encounters (SEs) and Near-Miss Events (NMEs), has been proposed and widely employed to assess collision risk. To better understand this risk in the Eastern North Atlantic, where maritime traffic is intensive, this study aimed to redefine and quantify CEs, and to assess detectability-related variables that may affect CE identification. CEs were assessed using a cetacean occurrence dataset collected between 2012 and 2024 on board cargo ships and oceanographic vessels. CEs thresholds were redefined based on Time to Potential Collision (TPC), rather than distance alone (as described in literature), to allow a more dynamic, risk-based, and speed-sensitive approach. In total, 1226 sightings of whales (baleen, sperm, and beaked whales) were recorded, of which 37.4% were classified as SEs and 2.0% as NMEs. The sperm whale, Physeter macrocephalus, was the species most frequently involved in CEs (13.9% of all CEs), followed by the Cuviers beaked whale, Ziphius cavirostris (11.8%). A Generalized Additive Model was used to assess the influence of detectability-related variables (i.e., meteorological conditions, whale taxa, vessel characteristics, and Marine Mammals Observers (MMOs) experience) on TPC. Significantly lower TPC values were observed with beaked whales, cargo ships, poor visibility conditions, and less experienced MMOs. The results of this study provide an CEs assessment in this region and contribute to the ongoing efforts to standardize CE quantification, by using TPC as a metric. This work also highlights the importance of decreased speeds and the presence of experienced MMOs on board to increase detection probability and TPC, thereby potentially minimizing collision risk.

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Integrating conventional tagging and acoustic telemetry improves estimates of post-release survival in a highly targeted reef fish

Hyman, A. C.; Collins, A.; Ramsay, C.; Allen, M. S.; Wilms, S.; Barbieri, L.; Frazer, T. K.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.16.711647 medRxiv
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Accurate estimation of post-release survival is fundamental to fisheries stock assessment and effective management. Conventional tag-return studies and acoustic telemetry are commonly used to estimate this probability, yet each approach has limitations when applied independently. Using gag (Mycteroperca microlepis) as a case study, we integrated data from a large-scale conventional tagging program and an acoustic telemetry experiment within a discrete-time statistical modeling framework that links relative recapture risk with telemetry-derived fate. This approach enabled estimation of post-release survival across a broad gradient of capture depths representative of recreational fishing conditions. Estimated survival was high in shallow waters ({approx}97%) but declined with increasing capture depth, consistent with depth-related barotrauma. Applying model predictions to depth distributions from the recreational fishery yielded annual and monthly post-release survival probabilities. Annual estimates were consistent with values assumed in recent stock assessments, while monthly values highlighted seasonal patterns potentially relevant for management. This integrated framework advances post-release survival estimation by combining the extensive sample sizes and environmental coverage characteristic of conventional tagging data with the direct fate observations provided by acoustic telemetry, and offers a transferable approach for other highly targeted fisheries.

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PEATREST: A lifecycle assessment (LCA) model of carbon fluxes for restored afforested peatlands

O'Sullivan, J.; Whittaker, C.; Xenakis, G.; Robson, T.; Perks, M.

2026-04-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.30.715261 medRxiv
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Peatlands are an important terrestrial carbon sink which, when drained, can produce substantial CO2 efflux. Low productivity forestry planted on drained peatlands can become a net carbon source if losses from drained soils exceed sequestration by the trees. Decision support tools which assist resource allocation and intervention planning in forest-to-bog restoration are needed to mediate this substantial environmental harm. Predicting carbon mitigation benefits associated with forest-to-bog restoration is a major challenge, however, due to the lack of long-term monitoring programs and the fact that mitigation times depend on processes distant from the intervention. Here we introduce the PEATREST life cycle assessment (LCA) which predicts carbon fluxes associated with forest-to-bog restoration, including due to processes far from restored sites. The LCA estimates mitigation timescales defined as the time following intervention at which the restored peatland is predicted to sequester or store more carbon than the forestry would have if retained. HighlightsO_LIHere we develop a novel forest-to-bog Life cycle assessment (LCA) tool C_LIO_LIThe LCA predicts carbon mitigation times following peatland restoration C_LIO_LIThe model combines a variety of process-based and empirical sub-models C_LIO_LIExample implementations for two different restoration scenarios are explored C_LIO_LISensitivity analysis highlights the model inputs that most impact outcomes C_LI Graphical abstract(A single, concise figure that serves as a visual summary of the main research findings described in your manuscript.) O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=80 SRC="FIGDIR/small/715261v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (18K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@f243f5org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@14bc4c7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@164261borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1db3b_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG The PEATREST Life cycle assessment (LCA) generates compound time series of carbon sequestration and carbon storage for two scenarios: the forest-to-bog peatland restoration (PR) and a counterfactual (CF) of forestry retention. By comparing the two scenarios, the LCA predicts the carbon mitigation timescales (vertical dashed lines). These are defined as the time following harvesting at which the peatland is predicted to sequester more (emit less), or to have stored more (lost less) carbon, than the forestry would have if retained. C_FIG

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Mapping small-scale ephemeral surface water to inform transfrontier conservation planning in southern Africa

Swift, M. E.; Songhurst, A.; McCullogh, G.; Beytell, P.; Naidoo, R.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.715600 medRxiv
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Reliable freshwater access drives terrestrial wildlife movements and habitat use globally. The small, rain-fed seasonal pools critical for dryland wildlife persistence are vulnerable to rising temperatures and unstable precipitation regimes projected under climate change. In southern Africa, which is expected to warm rapidly by 2100, the drying and disappearance of surface water may cause a breakdown in seasonal migrations of large, area-sensitive, and water-dependent wildlife species. Furthermore, the disappearance of ephemeral water may concentrate wildlife around remaining surface water, increasing resource competition and human-wildlife conflict. An accurate understanding of the dynamics and drivers of seasonal surface water will therefore be critical to wildlife and human health as climate change intensifies. Here, we present a framework and empirical analysis of fine-scale surface water mapping in the 520,000km2 Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA), the worlds largest terrestrial conservation area. From 2019-2025, we implemented Otsu thresholding on median Automated Water Extraction Index imagery from 10m Sentinel-2 MSI, leveraging high wet season contrast between vegetation and water as a dry season positive mask. We created >35 quasi-monthly KAZA-wide Ephemeral Surface Water (ESW) rasters (mean classification accuracy 87%, compared to 50% accuracy for existing water products), and found wet season precipitation drivers of non-riparian water fill levels did not extend into the dry season. Then, using GPS data from 27 African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana), which typically visit water every 48 hours, we compared elephant water visitation rates based on ESW to existing 30m Global Surface Water (GSW) maps. Models using ESW estimated 99% of elephant data came within a 48-hour window, compared to 42% for GSW, suggesting that ESW is a better proxy for actual wildlife water use in animal movement modeling. As aridification threatens to diminish surface water resources, we must model the drivers of wildlife movements at the scale of wildlife needs. With ESW, we provide fine scale accessible surface water data and a straightforward coding architecture for applications beyond KAZA.

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Comparative food-web analysis of bluefin tuna spawning habitats in the eastern Indian Ocean and Gulf of Mexico

Stukel, M. R.; Landry, M. R.; Decima, M.; Fender, C. K.; Kranz, S. A.; Laiz-Carrion, R. L.; Malca, E.; QUINTANILLA, J. M.; Selph, K. E.; Swalethorp, R.; Yingling, N.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.711569 medRxiv
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Using linear inverse ecosystem modeling as a data assimilation tool, we compare spawning grounds of Atlantic and Southern Bluefin Tuna (ABT and SBT, respectively) based on results from field campaigns in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and eastern Indian Ocean off northwest Australia (Argo Basin). Both regions are warm, stratified, low-nutrient waters dominated by cyanobacteria (Prochlorococcus). Despite these similarities, the Argo Basin is more productive, with [~]1.5X higher net primary production and nearly 2X higher production of top trophic levels in the model (tuna larvae, planktivorous fish, and predatory gelatinous zooplankton). Higher primary production in the Argo Basin is mainly driven by higher N2 fixation and storm mixing of new nutrients in the upper and lower euphotic zone, respectively. Increased ecosystem efficiency (secondary production of top trophic levels / primary production) results from differences in plankton food web organization. In the GoM, protistan zooplankton are the direct consumers of nearly all phytoplankton production. In contrast, higher rates of herbivory by crustaceans feeding on nanophytoplankton combines with a higher impact of appendicularians on cyanobacteria to convert plankton production into larval tuna prey more efficiently in the Argo Basin. Despite similarities in the proportions of phytoplankton production mediated by cyanobacteria and other picoplankton in both systems, food web pathways to larval tuna and other planktivorous fish are substantially shorter in the Argo Basin. Our results highlight the impact of distinct zooplankton ecological niches on ecosystem efficiency and suggest a need for better inclusion of plankton food-web structure in models simulating climate impacts on fisheries production. HIGHLIGHTSO_LIDeveloped food web models of tuna spawning habitat (Indian Ocean & Gulf of Mexico) C_LIO_LISpawning habitats in the Argo Basin and Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are both oligotrophic C_LIO_LIArgo Basin had higher net primary production in part as a result of nitrogen fixation C_LIO_LIArgo Basin had higher rates of direct herbivory by metazoan zooplankton C_LIO_LIThis resulted in greater ecosystem efficiency in the Argo Basin. C_LI

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Influence of organs, body size and growth and domoic acid depuration in the king scallop, Pecten maximus.

Le Moan, E.; Hegaret, H.; Deleglise, M.; Ambroziak, M.; Vanmaldergem, J.; Derrien, A.; Terre-Terrillon, A.; Breton, F.; Fabioux, C.; Jean, F.; Flye-Sainte-Marie, J.

2026-03-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.23.708139 medRxiv
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Since 1995, European fisheries of Pecten maximus have faced the presence of Pseudo-nitzschia species, which are able to produce the neurotoxin domoic acid responsible for Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning (ASP). As filter-feeders, scallops can accumulate and retain domoic acid much longer than most other bivalves, from months to years. When concentrations exceed the regulatory threshold, fisheries are closed leading to economic concern. Inter-individual variability increases the difficulty to predict the depuration dynamics. Quantifying the correlations between domoic acid depuration in P. maximus and individual physiological traits, particularly body size, could improve the understanding of contamination and depuration. We analysed toxin dynamics in organs and assessed the effects of body size and growth. This analysis was based on two datasets from an experimental and an in situ depuration monitoring of P. maximus exposed to a natural bloom of toxic P. australis. Results showed that the distribution of domoic acid shifted among organs between contamination and two months of depuration. Toxin concentrations correlated negatively with body size during contamination and after two months of depuration, but shifted to a positive correlation after 7 months of depuration. This suggested that smaller scallops both accumulate more domoic acid and depurate it more rapidly. Dilution by growth appeared to explain the inversion of the correlation between domoic acid and body size throughout depuration. These results yield useful information for modelling these mechanisms, thus providing valuable tools for scallop fishery management facing ASP. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=60 SRC="FIGDIR/small/708139v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (16K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1fd317org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@15b9032org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@57dae8org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1e4c7fc_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG HighlightsO_LIExperimental and in situ datasets allowed to quantify DA proportion dynamics in organs in P. maximus C_LIO_LIDA concentration and body size are negatively correlated during contamination phase, but positively after a 7-month depuration C_LIO_LIConsidering dilution by growth is important for young scallops to assess DA depuration dynamics C_LIO_LIBoth depuration rate and dilution by growth need to be considered to model DA depuration over the whole scallop size range C_LI